Research & Publications
The thinking behind the model — written plainly, verified with numbers you can reproduce in your own browser, and honest about the line between what's settled and what we're still testing. New here? Follow the path. An expert? Jump straight to the grid.
Start here
A guided path that begins with you and ends with how sure we are — see your own line, understand the model, run it, follow the story, tune it, then judge it honestly.
- See yourself in itYour Own JourneyEnter your spend; watch your own line.
- UnderstandThe modelRead the complete working paper.
- See it runGraduation SimulatorRun it yourself, month by month.
- Follow the storyDeeper InsightsOne lever at a time, in a narrative arc.
- Tune itObjective ExplorerFix a goal; find the settings that reach it.
- Judge itWhere We StandOur honest ledger — known, still testing, never claimed.
The page does something
Three live tools. Every figure is computed by the same seeded engine — reproducible, and yours to poke.
The Recursive Network
The best story we have, in three movements: where the return actually comes from, the network that carries a whole community home, and the ownership tree that makes it compound.
- Where Does the Return Come From?The return isn't assumed — it's an earned slice of a business's own productive profit: ROI = 12·PSP·(m·s)/C, equivalently slice × margin × capital-turns.
- The Network SustainsBusinesses spawn businesses. The obvious version is a bubble that collapses; the real one carries a 60,000-member network home — and holds.
- Businesses That Spawn BusinessesEach business reinvests a slice to fund a child business — an ownership tree many generations deep, returns flowing up the branches.
Deeper Insights
The model taken apart one lever at a time — a series with its own guided landing, in three movements. Each study changes a single knob, runs the engine, and reports what actually moves.
Everything, filterable
The full catalogue. Filter by category, by depth, or narrow to just the interactive tools.
The ModelThe working paper and the simulator that proves it.
The Complete Economic Model
The complete working paper — everyday neighborhood spending, pooled into member-owned businesses, compounds into permanent income that covers every member's full spend.
Graduation Simulator
Run the ownership-rotation model month by month — tune ROI, the four-way split, the allotment order and the accumulation hold, and watch the graduation date move.
See Your Own Journey
The model, made personal — set your household's monthly spend and when you'd join, and watch the engine draw your own coverage curve rising to fully covered.
Where We Stand
An honest ledger of our certainty — what the model and the product have actually established, what only reality can still confirm, and what we refuse to claim. The line between coherent and proven, drawn in public.
Deeper InsightsShort studies, each isolating one lever of the model.
Where Does the Return Come From?
The return isn't assumed — it's an earned slice of a business's own productive profit: ROI = 12·PSP·(m·s)/C, equivalently slice × margin × capital-turns.
The Network Sustains
Businesses spawn businesses. The obvious version is a bubble that collapses; the real one carries a 60,000-member network home — and holds.
Businesses That Spawn Businesses
Each business reinvests a slice to fund a child business — an ownership tree many generations deep, returns flowing up the branches.
ROI is Destiny
The return the businesses earn dominates the date — 20% → ~29 years, 100% → ~7.
What Return Should a Business Aim For?
One lever moves the finish line more than all the others: the return. The target for every new business is to earn the highest honest one it can.
The Patience Dividend
Reinvesting more of each return — paying members a little less now — reaches independence years sooner.
Solidarity Compounds
Turn off role-mixing and the finish slides from ~11 years to ~18.
The Two Ginis
Income equality and ownership distribution are independent dials.
Who Rises When
The distribution rules change the texture of the climb, not the finish.
The Seven Years of Plenty
An accumulation hold graduates everyone sooner AND builds ~double the economy — optimum near seven years.
Built to Scale
Graduation time is nearly flat from 250 to 2,000 families.
When Members Aren't Identical
Give every family its own budget and all still graduate — to their own full coverage, in the same time.
When Businesses Fail
Let businesses fail and the finish moves out and the band widens — but no one is ever excluded.
Joining a Community Already in Flight
Let members arrive over time and latecomers still graduate — faster than the founders did.
Tuning StudiesFix a goal, then find the settings that reach it.
Objective Explorer
Fix a goal — fastest coverage, founder reward, widest ownership, biggest economy — and see the settings that reach it, run live against the balanced default.
Tuning for Business Attractiveness
Reward founders with ownership and make membership stickier through diversification — at almost no cost to anyone's graduation date or income equality.
No pieces match those filters.
What the engine has verified — and what we're still testing
The findings on the left are verified in the v6 engine and reproducible. The questions on the right are open — hypotheses and stress-tests still ahead. We keep the line public on purpose.
Verified in v6
- Where We StandAn honest ledger of our certainty — what the model and the product have actually established, what only reality can still confirm, and what we refuse to claim. The line between coherent and proven, drawn in public.
- The Two GinisIncome equality and ownership distribution are independent dials.
- The Seven Years of PlentyAn accumulation hold graduates everyone sooner AND builds ~double the economy — optimum near seven years.
- Built to ScaleGraduation time is nearly flat from 250 to 2,000 families.
- When Members Aren't IdenticalGive every family its own budget and all still graduate — to their own full coverage, in the same time.
- When Businesses FailLet businesses fail and the finish moves out and the band widens — but no one is ever excluded.
- Joining a Community Already in FlightLet members arrive over time and latecomers still graduate — faster than the founders did.
Still testing
- Correlated failureThe network holds when businesses fail independently. Whether it survives a shock that takes down many at once — a regional downturn hitting the whole cohort — is the next stress test.
- The ownership-fairness tailFounders are rewarded with concentrated ownership without delaying anyone's income. We're still mapping exactly how far that concentration can go before it stops feeling fair.
- The literal node-by-node graphThe piling is modelled as reinvestment rates and generations. A literal business-by-business ownership graph — every parent and child a real node — is built next.
- Labor, pricing & competitionThe model prices demand and capital. Wages, price-setting against outside competitors, and market dynamics are whole phases still ahead.